Primary schools in Westminster face financial challenge as pupil numbers fall

More than a quarter of Westminster’s primary school places are empty, as the council warns of the financial implications of falling pupil numbers.

As is being seen across much of London, the level of surplus capacity in the City’s primary schools is increasing, having reached 25.9 per cent in January this year. This is up from 24.1 percent in 2023, and 23.1 percent in 2022.

Council officers have warned that, due to schools’ income being directly linked to their pupil numbers, “there is a risk of school budgets falling into deficit which could come back to the Council if they cannot balance their budgets”.

According to London Councils analysis published earlier this year, the capital could see a decline in reception pupils of 4.4 percent by 2027/28, alongside a 4.3 percent drop in demand for year seven places.

In a report reviewing the financial performance of Westminster City Council’s first few months of 2024/25, officers raised the falling pupil numbers as posing risks to school budgets.

“In terms of longer-term financial planning there continues to be a lack of certainty from government over longer-term funding of Councils,” they wrote. “The Local Government Association is pushing for multi-year financial settlements that would allow Councils to adopt a longer-term approach rather than an annual process highly dependent on annual financial settlements each December/January.”

In the same report, officers described how the surplus capacity would be “much higher” if action had not been taken removing spaces from primary provision. “The surplus capacity has therefore remained stable but will need to be reduced to a level that is considered reasonable for an Inner London borough with significant mobility,” they added.

At the council’s Audit and Performance Committee meeting on 5 September, Sarah Newman, Bi-Borough Executive Director of Children’s Services, told the committee that the number of schools in deficit had actually reduced in the last year, from 13 to 15.

“It is our responsibility to make sure that schools can balance their budgets,” she said. “If they can’t we then work with school governors to come up with plans such as federation and amalgamation in order to bring the deficits down.”

Conservative councillor Ian Rowley later quizzed officers on what work had been done to tackle the deficits some schools were facing. Newman responded saying 14 forms of entry, meaning the number of classes in each year group, have been removed in the last four years. She added a number of amalgamations have taken place already, including between Churchill Gardens and Millbank Academy earlier this year.

In August the executive headteacher of Soho Parish CofE Primary School at Great Windmill Street made a public appeal in the Soho Society Newsletter to help keep the school open.

“We currently only have about two thirds of the total number of children we have the space to educate and our funding is calculated on a ‘per child’ basis, so you can imagine the impact that has on an already tight budget,” wrote Alix Ascough.

Since September 2023 the school has been in a partnership with All Souls CofE Primary School in Foley Street, Fitzrovia, with Ascough as executive head of both schools.

The council report further detailed how the most significant pressure on the council’s finances continues to be temporary accommodation. The number of households in such accommodation has risen from 2,699 in April 2022 to 3,693 at the end of June this year, a hike of 38 percent. A temporary accommodation budget of £50.2mn was set for 2024/25, based on the need for 1,200 additional units to help meet the growing demand.

Additional reporting by Linus Rees.