Potential cuts to the number of officers in the Metropolitan Police could be significantly less severe than feared, according to an analysis by the London Assembly.

Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said in December that the force was facing a ยฃ450mn funding shortfall, which could possibly require cutting 2,300 officers in the coming financial year.

But an analysis by the Assemblyโ€™s budget and performance committee suggests that any such cuts could be drastically mitigated.

In a letter to Sir Sadiq Khan, the committeeโ€™s Conservative chairman, Neil Garratt, pointed out that the latest version of the mayorโ€™s budget includes an extra ยฃ78mn for โ€œpolice officer payโ€.

Neither the mayorโ€™s office, nor the Met, is saying at this stage how exactly that additional funding will be used, or what it could mean for total officer numbers.

In his letter, Garratt said that the extra cash nonetheless โ€œsuggests that the planned reduction in officer numbers may be somewhat mitigatedโ€.

He added: โ€œFor example, we were told that the budget assumption of the average cost of a police officer [in a single year] was ยฃ77,000. The additional ยฃ78m proposed funding for police officer pay could therefore fund around a thousand police officers, and reduce the previous planned reduction of 2,300 to 1,300, depending on the timescales involved.

โ€œHowever, these are our own estimates which are not reliable given the limited information available. MOPAC [the Mayorโ€™s Office for Policing and Crime] has not provided an official account of its planned officer reductions. We urge it to do so as quickly as possible.โ€

Dan Worsley, the Metโ€™s chief finance officer, told the committee earlier this month that Scotland Yard was still โ€œworking through what the [Governmentโ€™s] additional police grant monies means for us, and what the conditions are attached, in terms of what that means for our net recruitment plans, and so I donโ€™t have an end-point [of officer numbers] for the 2025/26 financial year, until weโ€™ve worked through how that money will be appliedโ€.

A spokesman for Sir Sadiq said in response to the committeeโ€™s analysis that โ€œno final decisions to reduce any services or officer numbers at the Met have been madeโ€ and stressed that โ€œthe mayor is working closely with the new Government and the Commissioner, with ongoing constructive talks with ministers about the funding the Met needs to ensure we can continue building a safer London for everyoneโ€.

He also said that, โ€œin setting out the worst-case scenario, the Met is not proposing any savings in areas that have direct contact with the public, like emergency response or neighbourhood teamsโ€.

He added: โ€œNeighbourhood and frontline policing remain a key priority and the Met will continue to invest in reforming how they fight crime locally.โ€

Letter from Neil Garratt AM Chairman of the Budget and Performance Committee (pdf).

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