Can the Greens really win in Camden’s Bloomsbury ward?

As 7 May approaches, and the London council elections get closer and closer, parties are vying for people’s votes in what could be the city’s most consequential election this century.  

Using data from Nowcast UK ward estimates that shows them only six percentage points behind the Labour Party, the Green Party is claiming that they can win Bloomsbury, a ward that has been steadily held by Labour. This begs the question of how credible these claims are, and can the Greens really win over Bloomsbury? 

While Labour has historically held a steady grip on London local elections, contempt towards the current government has resulted in an increase in populist sentiment among both the political left and right, leading to the rise of the Green Party and Reform UK as significant contenders in the upcoming elections. In fact, even though Camden has been strongly Labour held, the Greens are projected to do very well there, and some experts are predicting that the borough will go to no overall control this election cycle. 

The current councillors in the Bloomsbury ward are Sabrina Francis, Adam Harrison, and Rishi Madlani, all Labour and all up for re-election. The Green Party are running Lilac Carr, Volodomy Lukyanov, and Matthew Parsfield, urging residents to vote for all three of them. 

During the last two London council elections in 2022 and 2018, Labour maintained a comfortable hold over the Bloomsbury ward, winning all three seats with 66.4 per cent and 56.1 per cent of the vote share, respectively (pdf). The rest of the vote share was divided by Conservatives and Liberal-Democrats, with the Green Party trailing significantly behind. That being said, support for the Greens (and disdain towards Labour) has increased significantly since the last election, so an upset is not outside the realm of possibilities. 

The Nowcast UK projection does not utilise a MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) poll, which is widely considered to be the most accurate method for predicting local elections. Instead, its estimate is a projection based on 2024 general election ward-level estimates and current polling averages, which can give important insight into national trends, but tends to lean more favourably towards smaller parties with sudden surges in support (i.e. Green and Reform). Additionally, it is important to note that while a six point lead may not intuitively appear to be large, realistically, it is a difficult gap to close across all three seats. 

Alternatively, Britain Votes Now projects Labour to win 48 per cent of the vote, with Green trailing behind at 16 per cent. Their estimates predict a 97 per cent win probability for Labour overall in the Bloomsbury ward.      

An MRP poll by YouGov predicts Labour to maintain its control over the borough of Camden, with the Greens just trailing behind, but ward specific data is not available. 

Using a ward by ward methodology to set the baseline, Pollcheck provides a slightly more accurate model to assess the likelihood of the Greens taking over Bloomsbury. Similar to Nowcast UK, their prediction also shows a six point difference between the two parties, with Labour winning two seats and one going to Green. 

The likely answer to whether or not the Green Party can actually win all three seats from Labour in the Bloomsbury ward appears to be no. However, it is quite possible that they will take one seat, and the margins will be closer than ever before. Regarding the broader Camden borough elections, it does seem that the Greens will win certain wards and perhaps even turn Camden into a borough with no overall control.   

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